Subtle up of the ante:

Speaking about Iraq, our president said: “We’re not leaving so long as I’m president.

While I suppose we’ve all known this for a while — given the unholy mess we’re stuck in, there’s really no way we’re going to get out of there for many years to come — it’s interesting to see him completely give up on pretending that we’re going to win the war Real Soon Now.

(Coming soon: A real write-up about the recent war with Hezbollah and what was going on behind the scenes. The short answer is “a hell of a lot.”)

Edit: Will wonders never cease. Take a look at the transcript of another press conference, and search for the word “weapons of mass destruction.” You will see our president openly and publicly admitting that the entire WMD rationale was wrong, and that Iraq had nothing whatsoever to do with 9/11. Thanks to for the link.

Published in: on August 21, 2006 at 13:38  Comments (10)  
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Published in: on August 7, 2006 at 01:32  Comments Off on Protected: OK.  
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Excitement.

The President has started circulating draft legislation to establish military tribunals for the trying of “enemy combatants,” in response to the Supreme Court’s Hamdan ruling. (WP article here) Quick bullet points from this: An “enemy combatant” is defined pretty loosely, including an “individual who is or was part of or supporting Taliban or al Qaeda forces or associated forces,” (sec 103B) without specification on the nature of the support. The bill establishes tribunals with authority up to and including the death penalty.

Good news: they allow defense counsel as per military rules, i.e. appointed by the court; civilian counsel is permitted if they satisfy various additional requirements (sec 215b2) they prohibit self-incrimination or evidence obtained via torture (sec 211). Defense has access to compulsory process for obtaining withesses “similar to” that of civilian courts. (sec 222.a) Certain punishments are explicitly prohibited: “flogging… branding, marking, or tattooing on the body… the use of irons, single or double, except for the purpose of safe custody.” (sec. 228)

Bad news: Proceedings may be closed to the public, or to the accused, “upon a finding by the military judge that doing so is necessary to protect the national security, to ensure the safety of individuals, or to prevent disruption.” (Sec. 216.c.3) In such a case the accused will be provided with a “redacted or unclassified summary of evidence… if it is possible to do so without compromising… national security interests.” (216.c.4) There was a sentence “No evidence shall be admitted to which the accused has been denied access if its admission would result in the denial of a (fair trial?),” but that sentence seems to have been edited out. (216.c.4) The denial of hearsay evidence (sec 102.7.b), the right to a speedy trial, and the “technical rules for sworn and authenticated statements” (102.7.c) are explicitly rejected.

Mixed: Appeals go the “convening authority,” i.e. the Secretary of Defense (sec 232) After all such appeals, the US Court of Appeals for the DC circuit has appellate jurisdiction.

Overall, this bill is marginally better than the pre-Hamdan situation, in that it allows for some judicial review of proceedings, but it still has the basic problems: anyone may be entered into this military system by the exclusive decision of the Secretary of Defense or designated officers, without the need for indictment by a grand jury, and while within this system several parts of the Constitution are effectively suspended. (Article III sec. 2 p. 3 [jury trial]; amendment V, first provision [grand jury] and arguably the fourth [due process]; all of amendment VI except for a weakened version of the right to counsel; amendment VIII, first provision [excessive bail]; article I, section 9 pp. 2 [habeas corpus]) In practice, this appears to be an imposition of martial law in parallel to civilian law: the military is entitled to try people by its rules whenever it sees fit. The best argument against that seems to be a trust that the government will not abuse this power, but that’s a pretty poor argument when several stages of the bill explicitly remove the usual procedural safeguards that obstruct that. I’ll also point out the slew of reports about the actual main uses of the Patriot Act: to obtain information in drug cases and other non-terrorism-related issues. Given an alternate legal procedure that’s easier for prosecutors, they will systematically use it to go after people they see as bad; that’s completely natural, but that’s why we have the Constitution in the first place.

The President’s own public statements indicate that the objective is to be able to hold such prisoners “for the duration of the war,” but other statements of his indicate that the war is likely to be permanent, so I’ll leave the details to the reader.

Now, in practice: this bill is unlikely to come to the floor very quickly, but it may be intended for use as a political football during the midterm elections. Those elections are likely to be crucial: if the Republicans lose substantial support, and especially if they lose control of one or both houses of Congress, all such procedures are likely to vanish pretty quickly; if on the other hand the Bush movement feels that they can claim even a tenuous mandate post-election, they are likely to push very hard for measures like this and stronger ones elsewhere.

Published in: on July 31, 2006 at 09:22  Comments Off on Excitement.  
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Published in: on July 24, 2006 at 09:13  Enter your password to view comments.  
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Another terror blurb

Quick note: If you hear something in the news in the near future about the “Abu al-Fadal al-Abas Brigades” in Iraq, these are a new arm of Hezbollah which Iran has set up in Iraq, specifically to act as Iran’s proxy fighters against the US. Apparently they moved from silent setup mode to active attacking mode on 4 Jul, and we can expect them to be trouble in the future.

Related: Notice that ever since Ahmadinejad took power in Iran, and made Mughniyeh his defense minister, Iran has been very actively founding Iranian-controlled terror groups in as many places as possible: AaFaA Brigades in Iraq, its old Hezbollah setup in Lebanon and Syria, its infiltration & takeover of Hamas in Gaza, etc. If I were running a government anywhere vaguely in that region that had a Shi’ite minority, I’d be keeping my eyes open for whatever satellite group Iran were setting up there. And note that this is an international network of professional terrorist groups with the systematic sponsorship, supply and control by a government that’s trying to become a nuclear power: the worst hypothesis is confirmed.

Iran is gearing up for a major proxy war. If they set up these units in every Middle Eastern country with a Shi’ite population, they could effectively destabilize the local governments and install friendly regimes, or at least create friendly circumstances “on the ground:” the true creation of an Iranian sphere of influence. The other thing these teams are for is for fighting against the US/Israel alliance, which it views – quite rightly – as a competitor for geostrategic power in the region. Such a force would certainly back even non-Shi’ite groups to further its aims; (remember that Iran supplied weapons to the [Sunni] PLO for years) direct alliance with groups like al-Qaeda is less likely, since those groups have very strong ideological leanings which aren’t that compatible, but these guys have the potential to be much more strongly unified.

The question of just how broad Iran’s ambitions are is open: they want this network, they want ICBM’s (they already have intermediate-range ballistic missiles, like the Shahab-3; once North Korea finalizes the Taepodong-2 ICBM, Iran will probably be the first customers), they want the Bomb. Do they want to take on China or India for regional power? Would they want to press engagement with US/Israel even beyond the scale needed to push them out of the area?

Another interesting question: How will Russia come down in this? They haven’t decisively allied with either the US or Iranian side in this conflict, and have been willing to work with both. At some point it will probably become very difficult to do this. Which way it goes depends e.g. on how Iran decides to involve itself (or not) with Chechnya, but it could have a big impact on how much free rein Iran ends up getting in the Central Asian sphere.

Published in: on July 20, 2006 at 09:18  Comments (32)  
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Published in: on July 19, 2006 at 16:33  Enter your password to view comments.  
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The War in Lebanon

There’s something curious about this particular war: the politicians all seem to get what’s really going on — even the ones who are usually a bit dense — but the media seems to have completely, utterly, missed the ball. So this is probably a good time to give a bit of backstory.

(The backstory to the backstory, if you haven’t heard the news at all — a few months ago, Hamas started firing missiles at Israel fairly regularly from Gaza. A few weeks ago, they raided and kidnapped a soldier, plus killing a few more. Israel demanded his return and parked armored divisions at the border; Hamas refused, and Israel rolled in the tanks, going for both the hostage’s release and an end to the attacks. Then a bit after that, Hezbollah raided from Lebanon and kidnapped people as well; in response, Israel has essentially gone to war, and Lebanon has been getting bombed ever since. Various countries have said “bad Israel, you’re overreacting” but the response has been very noticeably muted; in fact, the US, Europe, and even the Arab League aren’t actually opposing Israel’s actions very strongly at all, and Bush signalled today pretty clearly that he’s going to wait at least another week before really trying to encourage a cease-fire at all. Why?…)
(more…)

Published in: on July 18, 2006 at 22:29  Comments (32)  
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Back!

Back in the US, had an excellent trip. I’ll post a detailed trip report later, as well as a serious politics post about the situation in Israel — there are some things that I haven’t seen the media talk about at all.

Published in: on July 18, 2006 at 10:27  Comments (4)  

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Published in: on June 28, 2006 at 15:52  Enter your password to view comments.  
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Quick Middle East roundup

Just an update, for those of you who haven’t been watching this. A few days ago, Hamas attacked an Israeli position, killing two soldiers and capturing another one. They took him to somewhere in Gaza. Israel massed armored units at the border and warned them to return him at once.
Politics in action!

Published in: on June 28, 2006 at 15:40  Comments (2)  
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