More al-Zarqawi stories

The Washington Post on the Iraqi reaction, interviews in a Shiite neighborhood.

Al-Jazeera reporting the event and interviewing his family.

Ha’aretz reports on the Hamas response and his likely successor.

Debka talks more about succession.

Note the conflicting reports: Ha’aretz suggests Abd al-Rahman al-Iraqi and notes he was there when al-Zarqawi died, but Debka says al Qaeda has already named Abdallah bin Rashid al-Baghdadi. Meanwhile the most senior al-Qaeda figure in Iraqi is Wariya Arbili, and al-Qaeda also named Abdulhadi al-Iraqi as head of worldwide ops. Most of these people are largely unknown; note how many Iraqis are on this list, though, suggesting just how central Iraq has become to al-Qaeda in the post-Saddam era.

It’s possible that all of these reports are true: if so, there’s the opening for a really “interesting” succession battle. But that fight may be brief if one of the groups acts fast.


On a separate note, the Swiss government confirmed the breakup of a plot to shoot down an El Al airliner. This, the London cell, and the Toronto operation… there have been a lot of major terror operations broken up in the recent past.

Also the director of the Shin Bet (Israel’s rough equivalent of the FBI) warned the parliament that al Qaeda is setting up operations in Jerusalem and Nablus, which is probably a sign that things are about to heat up a lot.

Don’t forget the recent riots in Egypt, and the fact that Mubarak and Olmert recently had a summit which went fairly well; the conditions are ripe for a possible uprising in Egypt. If Mubarak can’t put it down, this likely means an Islamist regime there, which could lead to a domino effect heading east quickly – through Saudi, Kuwait and Jordan, and charging straight into Iraq, with Iran sitting on the opposite border.

Trouble ahead, but thwartable trouble. The best way to avoid it may be if Mubarak can be as ruthlessly efficient as Hafez al-Assad was at putting down popular insurrection.

(Yes, I just suggested thwarting a nascent popular uprising against a dictatorship as being a good thing. There are worse things than dictatorships, and these guys would be just the people to demonstrate that.)

Published in: on June 8, 2006 at 12:55  Comments Off on More al-Zarqawi stories  
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Thwack.

I really do try not to rejoice at other people’s deaths, but sometimes it’s tricky.

Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, head of al Qaeda in Iraq, killed by US airstrike.

One of the more bloody-minded and vicious thugs of our recent past, the mastermind and chief encourager of hundreds of suicide bombings, aimed not only at Americans but at Iraqis, so that there would never be a sense of peace. He has the blood of thousands of civilians on his hands, and was actively continuing and accelerating his program of murder. He preached a variety of hard-line Islamism that made even the Taliban seem fairly moderate. In fact, he was far enough “out there” that his successors are likely to be more moderate – and less effective. Not something that happens so often in the Middle East.

Good job and congrats to all those involved on a difficult – and important – operation. This move likely just saved the lives of a few thousand civilians, and increased the chances of bringing this damned war to an end soon.

Published in: on June 8, 2006 at 10:40  Comments (20)  
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An Inconvenient Truth, tonight

So far, we’ve got and interested in the 9:20 of An Inconvenient Truth tonight in PA. Any more takers?

If it’s just the three of us, we can probably carpool — , where do you work? , should I pick you up around 8:45?

Edit: Um, I should say, , where can you be found at an appropriate time to go? I sometimes forget that my schedule isn’t all that normal.

Reedit: This thread now moved to e-mail. If you want to go and aren’t already on the thread, e-mail me.

Published in: on June 8, 2006 at 10:31  Comments (16)  

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Published in: on June 5, 2006 at 09:43  Enter your password to view comments.  

Theater time!

Last night and I went to see “Urinetown” at the San Jose Stage Company. It was excellent; the production was absolutely top-notch, from the acting to the lighting and choreography, the play itself is very funny, and you’ve got to love a musical which ends with a rousing cheer of “Hail Malthus!”

Published in: on June 3, 2006 at 20:04  Comments Off on Theater time!  

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Published in: on June 1, 2006 at 23:23  Enter your password to view comments.  
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Unity parties

There’s an odd little article in the Washington Post tonight about some people trying to put together a unity ticket for 2008, a bipartisan presidential ticket.
Why this won’t work

Published in: on May 30, 2006 at 20:16  Comments (9)  
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Random English question

Question for all you native (and fluent) speakers out there, especially language geeks:

I generally don’t split infinitives in English. There’s one case that I’m stuck on, though, because I’m not sure if there’s another way to indicate the difference I have in mind: “not to do X” versus “to not do X.” The former implies that X is not done, but possibly through inattention or accident; the latter, a usage borrowed mostly from the speech habits of computer scientists, implies that the not doing of X is a primary objective of one’s actions.

Is there a more correct way to say this? It feels clunky every time I say it.

(What brought this to mind was a news article about the Clintons’ married life, where they say that Mr. Clinton “has told friends that his No. 1 priority is not to cause her any trouble.” When I read that, it seemed that “not” was modifying “is” rather than “cause,” which would suggest that his next line ought to be “It’s to make sure other people do! Wahahahaha!”)

Published in: on May 23, 2006 at 12:16  Comments (50)  
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Gaza…

Tell me, what kind of government security force wears ski masks and walks around with machine guns pointing up? I mean internal security here, not even armies.

Anyway, your telling lead line for the day:

GAZA (Reuters) – Rival Palestinian forces faced off at Gaza’s border crossing with Egypt on Friday after border guards loyal to President Mahmoud Abbas caught a Hamas official trying to smuggle in 639,000 euros ($804,000), authorities said. (NY Times)

Border guards loyal to the President against “security forces” loyal to the legislature?

Combine with trouble in Egypt. There’s an awful lot of dry kindling lying around the Middle East nowadays…

Published in: on May 19, 2006 at 16:47  Comments (8)  
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News update: Egypt

Demonstration in Egypt quited by force: A while ago, two judges alleged that the parliamentary elections were fixed. (They were) The judges faced a disciplinary hearing for saying so, and there have been protests by the public against this for a while. Big protest today, put down with force by the government.

Further background on this: Egypt is run by a secular dictatorship. (Um, sorry. He’s a president, really. Of course you can vote for anyone you want. It says so right here on the label, next to the nice man with the gun.) They’re not particularly popular because the economy is, as usual, in the toilet. The Muslim Brotherhood is essentially the original radical Islamist group; they were founded in Egypt several decades ago, and most modern organizations of that sort claim some sort of descent from them. They originated in Egypt to resist the local government. While they have pursued terrorism, their other major tack is to get legitimate political power. Since the parliament and presidency are under tight control, they’ve been slowly taking over the judiciary: an increasingly large fraction (already in the mid-double-digits) of Egypt’s judges are strict Islamists.

This is the sort of thing that has the potential to boil over into broader social conflict or even revolution. Egypt is the most populous Arab state; trouble in there could easily seep over the borders to Saudi, Jordan, etc. Watch it carefully: things may happen there soon which impact daily life in the U.S.

Published in: on May 18, 2006 at 15:41  Comments Off on News update: Egypt  
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