Oh, fsck.

[politics filter]

News of a protest in Baghdad. Large numbers of Shi’ites, angered over the deaths of two Iraqis, apparently at the hands of American forces, the day before. (n.b. I have no idea about the actual circumstances of death of these people; I don’t think that’s relevant at this point)

Israeli experience tells me: This sort of protest is a sign of a sudden spike in the anger levels, and a lot of trouble about to happen. Combine with the general increasing friction between Shi’ites and the rest of the Iraqi population, and a possible perception among Shi’ites that Americans aren’t doing enough to safeguard their interests – [whether or not there is such a perception now, such a thing can very easily grow in a very short time, and there are several people with strong incentive to make that happen] – likely portends a sharp escalation in violence in the near future, possibly up to and including major engagements with mobs.

Furthermore, this could be the signal for the start of large-scale trouble between Sunnis, Shi’ites and Kurds; time will have to tell on that.

Either way, here comes amusement….

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Published in: on October 10, 2003 at 15:42  Comments (1)  
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  1. Oh, dear. A former love of mine is currently in Iraq doing some work. He’s ex-military, and works for governments in various computer-related roles. (He’s been very vague about what he actually does, but he makes a shitload of money). I just found out this week that he’s there.


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