You may have heard rumors that the US and Israel are planning a joint strike against Iran. I don’t have time to read through all the sources now and check on the rumors, but we’re definitely building up military strength in the Persian Gulf. Short summary of possibilities:
- This is just some saber-rattling to point out to Iran that it should, in fact, be thinking more seriously about negotiation. If so we’re in luck, because that would be a not entirely stupid move. Of course, it’s no good if you’re not willing to follow through, but that’s a legitimate negotiation tactic.
- These forces are actually going to be used in Iraq. That could go well with option 1.
- We’re planning some limited sort of operation, or to act in support of an Israeli operation. Possibilities include bombing selected targets or even doing highly targeted ground operations against them. I would have to spend a lot more time analyzing data, and for that matter analyze highly classified data, to get a sense of whether this is workable or not. It’s very risky.
- Our President has decided to make the First Classic Blunder for a third time in a row, and has no understanding of the relative military strengths of the force he just put in the Gulf and the Iranian military, nor of the consequences of turning Iran into another Iraq. Normally I would rule this out under “even he isn’t that stupid,” but the past few years have taught me the folly of betting on that.
Anyway, keep your eyes open. If I have time I’ll sniff more.
(And thanks to for pointing me at the recent changes — I’ve not been paying proper attention to political news lately)