Another Gaza post

Another joint analysis of the developing Gaza situation with Amy. Read and enjoy!

(And those of you who follow my blog for politics may want to start reading hers, as well. We’re probably going to do many more of these joint posts in the future.)

It’s an interesting developing situation. I mispredicted: I expected that if Israel rolled into Gaza on the ground, it would do quick deep-penetration manoeuvers to wipe out selected “hard targets” which couldn’t be hit from the air. Instead, it appears that this is a massed-force invasion. Part of this probably means that intelligence wasn’t quite good enough to really wipe out the bulk of Hamas’ military capability from the air. (DEBKA reports that the first day of bombing eliminated about 1,800 of Hamas’ 8,000 Qassam [short-range] rockets, and the campaign so far has eliminated about 50% of their Grad [longer-range] rockets. At Hamas’ new reduced rate of 80 rockets per day, they are still armed for about 2 months of firing, which is long enough for a war to end and for them to resupply.) Another thing this means is that Israel is probably going to go after Hamas’ built-up infrastructure more thoroughly, including their enormous network of underground bunkers and facilities. That’s going to be a particularly brutal sort of warfare, but it’s probably necessary since the Gaza Strip is one of the most heavily tunneled places in the world.

I’d still conjecture that the invasion is meant to last on the scale of weeks rather than months, but there’s now the distinct possibility that Israel will still be occupying significant ground positions within Gaza when Obama is inaugurated.

Published in: on January 3, 2009 at 16:28  Comments Off on Another Gaza post  
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